One of the most important discussions in sports betting is without a doubt what we call the fair line. This subject that generates doubts and discussions, is a little complete subject and its complete explanation is something long. But with this text we will explain what it is and what my view on it is.
What is a fair line?
Fair line is a study or method of yours that considers various statistics, weights and criteria to know if a given odd is above or below what it really is worth, if it has any value. For example:
- Bayern Munich are getting $ 2.35 to beat PSG on Tuesday. For you, are the odds of 2.35 above or below what is really worth? Your fair line is what will answer.
- Pricing is putting a price on something. In sports betting prices are the odds.
Then you analyze the event you want to bet through your skills for that. But do something “reasonable”, nothing too simple or “raw”. It is necessary to analyze important things, such as position in the table, team time, best team, tactics, coaches, absences and many other things in short, you will do a series of studies that in the end gives you a result.
Then you price your analysis. It is possible to price with an excel table, through the poisson model, to do it head on or even have a system for it.
You compare your fair line (odds you quote) with the odds offered by bookmakers
Is the house odd smaller than your fair line? This means that it has no value. Is the house odd bigger than your fair line? That means 안전놀이터 site it has value to you.
EV, whether positive or negative, is yours, which depends exclusively on your study.
And who makes the odds?
They are primarily made by oddsmakers. They build the odds on a statistical and power ranking basis, which they themselves create. Not only that, the knowledge and feeling of the oddsmakers is also taken into account when building these odds.
Once made, the oddsmakers send their odds to the bookmakers. This is a point. The second point, is that bookmakers will place their profit margin (which lower the odds for us) on top of each bet released to the public.
As the betting money enters, always the bets of the good bettors will change the price of the odds. When a group of good bettors is betting more money on Bayern Munich, the tendency is that the odd that was 2.35 falls and continues to fall if the majority of the bets of these good bettors continue to go to Bayern.